“First we have to see it for what it is.”

In February, I heard Zbigniew Brzezinski on Charlie Rose. I got the same feeling from him as I get from Richard Clarke of a rare someone who sees clearly and speaks without posturing. My impression was confirmed in this New York Times review of  “THE CHOICE: Global domination or Global leadership,” in which Brzezinski's new book is called “the single most lucid and systematic statement of America's 21st-century security challenges yet to appear.” 

THE CHOICE: Global Domination or Global Leadership
Review by G. JOHN IKENBERRY
       
The United States is in the midst of a great debate about national security.
 
The last great debate was in the 1940's as American officials struggled to cope with the insecurities generated by postwar Soviet power and global Communism. That era's search for security transformed the American relationship with the world, yielding a global system of alliances, doctrines of containment and deterrence and commitments to multilateral cooperation.
 
A half-century later, the events of Sept. 11, 2001, painfully revealed a post-cold-war world menaced by new threats, and the Bush administration moved quickly to articulate a new vision of national security organized around pre-emption, coalitions of the willing, and the unfettered use of American military power. While critics have vigorously faulted the administration for its unilateralism and a rush to war in Iraq, they have offered o­nly glimmerings of an alternative national security vision.
 
Until now. The debate is now fully joined with “The Choice” by Zbigniew Brzezinski, the single most lucid and systematic statement of America's 21st-century security challenges yet to appear. For those troubled by President Bush's “war o­n terrorism” approach to national security, the flag of the opposition has finally and firmly been planted. Together, this new book by the distinguished scholar-diplomat and the Bush administration's 2002 national security strategy define the parameters of the establishment debate o­n national security.
 
Mr. Brzezinski says that American national security is profoundly tied to international security, and so the country's security is increasingly in the hands of others. The old link between national sovereignty and national security has finally been severed. In this new era the United States must be willing to work with other democracies to reduce the “convulsive and percolating strife” that lies behind today's global violence and terrorism.
 
Accordingly, Mr. Brzezinski argues that Washington must use this moment of unrivaled American power to build an “increasingly formalized global community of shared interest” that can provide a long-term basis for global peace and security. If the slogan of the Bush administration is “America will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our people,” Mr. Brzezinski's slogan might be “America will never be able to defend the security of its people without the help of others.”
 
His critique of the Bush administration's approach is understated but hard-hitting, and it is effective precisely because he accepts two key White House assumptions. He agrees that American power is indispensable in providing the framework for global order.
 
Mr. Brzezinski also accepts the administration's view that the United States faces radically new security problems in which the threats are coming not from established great powers but from illiberal states, backward societies and aggrieved peoples. Globalization and the growing ease of communication and transport project American ideas and society into the world but also provide tools for the weak to organize and hit back.
 
But Mr. Brzezinski parts company with President Bush in three fundamental respects. First, he argues that the “war o­n terrorism” is not an adequate or unifying mission for American foreign policy. Terrorism is a tactic  —  and so to declare war o­n terrorism is equivalent to Franklin D. Roosevelt's declaring war o­n blitzkrieg. The Bush administration's “theological approach” to terrorism, in which we are in a struggle between good and evil and others are either with us or against us, is too abstract, politically unsustainable, and inevitably leads to scare-mongering. It is also an inadequate diagnosis of the problem and, in the end, other countries whose cooperation we need won't sign o­n to it.
 
Second, Mr. Brzezinski argues that an adequate approach to terrorism must focus o­n the historical and political context in which violence is generated. Lurking behind every terrorist act is a political problem. A “careful political strategy is needed in order to weaken the complex political and cultural forces that give rise to terrorism,” he says. “What creates them has to be politically undercut.” The American reluctance to confront the sources of Islamic radicalism, rooted in the modern history of the Middle East, is in Mr. Brzezinski's view a dangerous form of denial. To simply say that terrorists hate freedom is to miss the impulses that underlie their actions.
 
Perhaps most important, he argues that American moral authority is the country's most prized asset and has been squandered by the Bush administration's arrogation of the unilateral right to define threats and use force. “America's global military credibility has never been higher, yet its global political credibility has never been lower,” he says. Ultimately American power is enhanced if it is legitimate, and this means that Washington must concert its power with other states and exercise consensual leadership.
 
Mr. Brzezinski, who was President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser, began his career as a scholar of Soviet power and geopolitics, so it is not surprising that he is most penetrating in his discussion of the character and limits of American power. He is less illuminating in his depiction of how consensual hegemony or an American-led concert of great powers might operate.
 
He also finds himself bumping up against the same problem that confounds Republican hard-liners. Both sides agree that American security is enhanced by the enlargement of “zones of global stability,” best pursued by reducing the misery and injustice that cause political violence and by promoting human rights and democracy. But the problem is the sheer intractability of this challenge.
 
In the end Mr. Brzezinski poses but does not really answer the essential question: Can a democratic superpower, rendered vulnerable by hidden and uncertain threats, advance its security by strengthening and binding itself to the world, or will it lash out in a way that leaves itself isolated? The good news is that the last time the United States had a grand debate o­n national security, it did ultimately act in its enlightened self-interest.
 
[G. John Ikenberry is the Peter F. Krogh professor of geopolitics and global justice at Georgetown University and a trans-Atlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.]

Note what the reviewer concludes. He agrees with Brzezinski that what we need is “best pursued by reducing the misery and injustice that cause political violence and by promoting human rights and democracy,” and goes o­n to say that “the problem is the sheer intractability of this challenge.”

 
Thomas Friedman in a column this week, AWAKING TO A DREAM, says, “I so hunger to wake up and be surprised with some really good news by someone who totally steps out of himself or herself, imagines something different and thrusts out a hand.”  
 
Those of you o­n this list can imagine what these observation do to me. I feel like I have the key to the kingdom, but can't get anybody to let me put it in the lock. My latest is an attempt to get recognizable signatures to a call for an investigation of the crop circles phenomenon (noteworthy scientists also, even if they aren't well known). If this is anything you could help with, please pass along my document: http://theconversation.org/call.pdf. (If you have doubts about the authenticity of the phenomenon, look at “Why Real Crop Circles Can't be Hoaxed”: http://theconversation.org/booklet2.html.) Producing this material, along with amping up the presentation that I do with our webmaster, Allen Branson  http://theconversation.org/presentation.pdf  is what's been keeping me busy enough not to have posted anything for awhile.
 
A corollary to the idea in Brzezinski's book that “an adequate approach to terrorism must focus o­n the historical and political context in which violence is generated” is what's been quoted in this week's obituary as coming from the great Peter Ustinov: “Terrorism is the war of the poor, and war is the terrorism of the rich.”
 
Fareed Zakaria in a Newsweek piece, Terrorists Don't Need States, speaks more core stuff o­n “the new face of terror: dozens of local groups across the world connected by a global ideology.” Saying, Next week I will explain how best to tackle this threat,” he concludes with what applies to the world in trouble and to the possibility that  crop circles represent:  “But first we need to see it for what it is.” Here's the email I sent him:
“But first we need to see it for what it is.” This is so smart as was all of your well-reasoned piece. The thing we lack for most is straight thinking. How could Bush maintain any popularity if people saw things for what they are and not in the distorted light that this administration basks in? 
I'm now tracking the award winning Josh Marshall's Talking Points Memo, to get his inside view of day to day developments. It's where I picked up Fareed Zakaria's piece. Both his commentary and the links he gives are hugely helpful to keep me feeling well informed. A measure of his worth is that he frequently is quoted by other good observers, like our listmember Danny Schechter, whose News Dissector Weblog I also read daily.

“Earth could be hit in an hour.” — INITIATING A CONVERSATION

If you cross a street, you don't predict the probability of a car being there; you look to see if one's coming.”
 
If humanity had its wits about it, the asteroid inquiry, below, is an example of what it would do.  There is so much danger o­n this living planet that we are a primitive species until we turn our collective attention to protecting ourselves from things beyond our control.   
 
A shift of mind-set is what it will take to get us to seriously change our ways, and, most logically, this would come from an event that made the possibility of species annihilation real to everyone who was left.  All good minds should be turned to how to bring about this shift in another way.  My offering is crop circles — evidence that we're not alone would bring us all together in a vastly different juxtaposition to the universe, plus it would conceivably enroll a greater intelligence than ours in coming to our aid.  The pattern so far has been that the incidence and complexity of the crop formations have increased in response to interest that has been shown, and anything that can put crop circles in our landscape conceivably could put an asteroid shield around the earth.  (We've tweaked our booklet showing why crop circles can't be hoaxed, and it's done now.  Please look: http://theconversation.org/booklet2.htmlTo view the booklet you must have at least Flash Player v.5. To get the latest version of the free Flash Player go to www.macromedia.com/flash.)
 
Does anyone have another idea for how to bring about a radical change in the way humanity thinks, or are there responses to this o­ne?

Scientists Want to Be Ready to Block Asteroid

A group gathered in O.C. says Earth could be hit in an hour — or in a thousand years or more.

By David Haldane, February 24, 2004

A huge asteroid heading for Earth could kill 1.5 billion people and devastate the planet, scientists at an international gathering said Monday in Garden Grove.

The o­nly question is when.

“It could happen this year or in a century or in a millennium” or far longer, said David Morrison, a space expert at NASA Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, in Northern California. Whenever it does, he said, we need to be ready.

Making sure that we are is the mission of 120 scientists and engineers attending the four-day gathering called the Planetary Defense Conference: Protecting Earth From Asteroids, which began Monday at the Hyatt Regency hotel. Billed as the first major conference of its kind, the confab has attracted astronomers, aerospace engineers, astronauts and emergency preparedness specialists from throughout the United States as well as Italy, Great Britain, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany and Russia.

Among the strategies to be discussed are such extravagant-sounding scenarios as deflecting asteroids with nuclear warheads, lasers and mirrors — which would create gas jets that would disrupt the object's trajectory.

“We have reached a point in the evolution of life o­n this planet where we can actually do something about this, but not if we don't start planning,” said Bill Ailor, director of the Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies at the Aerospace Corp. in El Segundo, which organized the conference along with the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics in Reston, Va. “Our goal,” Ailor said, “is to raise the consciousness of the public and of people who work in the field.”

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) who, among other things, chairs the House subcommittee o­n space and aeronautics and has introduced two bills encouraging research o­n threats from outer space, set the tone during a keynote address.

“Bin Laden was out there like a near-Earth object for a long time,” he said. “It took 9/11 — the slaughter of 3,000 innocents — for us to pay attention to that threat. I hope it won't take that long for us to recognize the threat of near-Earth objects; so far we've had a very tepid response.”

In fact, the U.S. government has been tracking and charting the paths of large asteroids since 1998. To date, Morrison said, about 60% of all those known have been charted; about 90% are expected to be done by 2008. “Among those charted,” he said, “there appears to be no danger.” As for the others, Morrison said, “I can't tell you anything about them — o­ne could hit us in an hour, though it's not very likely.”

He bases that mixed assessment o­n the belief of most scientists that truly catastrophic asteroid collisions occur o­nly about o­nce every million years. The uncertainty, he said, stems from the fact that, because the last such collision occurred in prerecorded history, its date is unknown. (A more minor incident — the magnitude of which occurs about o­nce every 100 years — happened in 1908, leveling more than 1,000 square miles of Siberian forest.)

“We want certainty,” Morrison said. “If you cross a street, you don't predict the probability of a car being there; you look to see if o­ne's coming.”

Conference organizers say that, for starters, they intend to encourage the continuation of that process. The conference — held in Garden Grove because, Ailor said, “it seemed like a good place to start [and] the weather is good this time of year” — is expected to be the first of many held at least o­nce every four years.

At Monday's opening session, participants heard presentations o­n the threat posed by asteroids and the methods by which it is assessed. Sessions through the rest of the week, Ailor said, will cover such topics as how to move a near-Earth object off course (including the early planning of a mission to do so), how to prepare for the disaster that will ensue if preventive efforts fail, and how to affect political and policy issues related to the impending threat.

“We want people to get excited about this topic,” Ailor said. “We want young people to consider it as a subject for future work.”

Continue reading

“Earth could be hit in an hour.” — INITIATING A CONVERSATION

If you cross a street, you don't predict the probability of a car being there; you look to see if one's coming.”
 
If humanity had its wits about it, the asteroid inquiry, below, is an example of what it would do.  There is so much danger o­n this living planet that we are a primitive species until we turn our collective attention to protecting ourselves from things beyond our control.   
 
A shift of mind-set is what it will take to get us to seriously change our ways, and, most logically, this would come from an event that made the possibility of species annihilation real to everyone who was left.  All good minds should be turned to how to bring about this shift in another way.  My offering is crop circles — evidence that we're not alone would bring us all together in a vastly different juxtaposition to the universe, plus it would conceivably enroll a greater intelligence than ours in coming to our aid.  The pattern so far has been that the incidence and complexity of the crop formations have increased in response to interest that has been shown, and anything that can put crop circles in our landscape conceivably could put an asteroid shield around the earth.  (We've tweaked our booklet showing why crop circles can't be hoaxed, and it's done now.  Please look: http://theconversation.org/booklet2.htmlTo view the booklet you must have at least Flash Player v.5. To get the latest version of the free Flash Player go to www.macromedia.com/flash.)
 
Does anyone have another idea for how to bring about a radical change in the way humanity thinks, or are there responses to this o­ne?

Scientists Want to Be Ready to Block Asteroid

A group gathered in O.C. says Earth could be hit in an hour — or in a thousand years or more.

By David Haldane, February 24, 2004

A huge asteroid heading for Earth could kill 1.5 billion people and devastate the planet, scientists at an international gathering said Monday in Garden Grove.

The o­nly question is when.

“It could happen this year or in a century or in a millennium” or far longer, said David Morrison, a space expert at NASA Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, in Northern California. Whenever it does, he said, we need to be ready.

Making sure that we are is the mission of 120 scientists and engineers attending the four-day gathering called the Planetary Defense Conference: Protecting Earth From Asteroids, which began Monday at the Hyatt Regency hotel. Billed as the first major conference of its kind, the confab has attracted astronomers, aerospace engineers, astronauts and emergency preparedness specialists from throughout the United States as well as Italy, Great Britain, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany and Russia.

Among the strategies to be discussed are such extravagant-sounding scenarios as deflecting asteroids with nuclear warheads, lasers and mirrors — which would create gas jets that would disrupt the object's trajectory.

“We have reached a point in the evolution of life o­n this planet where we can actually do something about this, but not if we don't start planning,” said Bill Ailor, director of the Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies at the Aerospace Corp. in El Segundo, which organized the conference along with the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics in Reston, Va. “Our goal,” Ailor said, “is to raise the consciousness of the public and of people who work in the field.”

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) who, among other things, chairs the House subcommittee o­n space and aeronautics and has introduced two bills encouraging research o­n threats from outer space, set the tone during a keynote address.

“Bin Laden was out there like a near-Earth object for a long time,” he said. “It took 9/11 — the slaughter of 3,000 innocents — for us to pay attention to that threat. I hope it won't take that long for us to recognize the threat of near-Earth objects; so far we've had a very tepid response.”

In fact, the U.S. government has been tracking and charting the paths of large asteroids since 1998. To date, Morrison said, about 60% of all those known have been charted; about 90% are expected to be done by 2008. “Among those charted,” he said, “there appears to be no danger.” As for the others, Morrison said, “I can't tell you anything about them — o­ne could hit us in an hour, though it's not very likely.”

He bases that mixed assessment o­n the belief of most scientists that truly catastrophic asteroid collisions occur o­nly about o­nce every million years. The uncertainty, he said, stems from the fact that, because the last such collision occurred in prerecorded history, its date is unknown. (A more minor incident — the magnitude of which occurs about o­nce every 100 years — happened in 1908, leveling more than 1,000 square miles of Siberian forest.)

“We want certainty,” Morrison said. “If you cross a street, you don't predict the probability of a car being there; you look to see if o­ne's coming.”

Conference organizers say that, for starters, they intend to encourage the continuation of that process. The conference — held in Garden Grove because, Ailor said, “it seemed like a good place to start [and] the weather is good this time of year” — is expected to be the first of many held at least o­nce every four years.

At Monday's opening session, participants heard presentations o­n the threat posed by asteroids and the methods by which it is assessed. Sessions through the rest of the week, Ailor said, will cover such topics as how to move a near-Earth object off course (including the early planning of a mission to do so), how to prepare for the disaster that will ensue if preventive efforts fail, and how to affect political and policy issues related to the impending threat.

“We want people to get excited about this topic,” Ailor said. “We want young people to consider it as a subject for future work.”

Continue reading

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